The Facts Behind the

Superstorm QuickWatch Monitor
from UnknownCountry Website

2005 was a turning point year during which climate change became inevitable. As atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose to heights not seen on earth for millions of years, and did so far faster than predicted by scientists as recently as 2003, weather conditions worsened globally.

Across the planet, there were vast fires as desert-like drought struck regions that have evolved deciduous forests. Massive Siberian forest fires, usually started by thieves intent on selling fire-damaged lumber to China, added significantly to global pollution. Had the region not become so dry, the fires could not have been started.

The Atlantic Ocean, always a generator of storms, became the most dangerous such region in the oceans as global warming drove sea surface temperatures to record highs while the same process, by trapping heat near the earth's surface, cause stratospheric temperatures to plummet to record lows.

This synergy resulted in the evolution of many and huge storms. Unusual storm events became more common, and the combination of global warming and a cyclical rise in hurricane activity insured that future hurricane seasons would bring more devastation. At risk is the entire Atlantic coast of the Americas from Central America to Newfoundland.

The most devastating hurricane in history, Katrina, ruined the US city of New Orleans. This happened because American Army Corps of Engineers funds earmarked to harden that city's levee system to a level where they would resist a category 5 hurricane were diverted for use in Iraq. Despite reports that clearly and unequivocally stated that the levee system was not adequate, the problem was ignored.

Some storms, such as Epsilon in December of 2005, have survived the north Atlantic crossing and affected Europe, and it is anticipated that there will be more unusual and powerful storm activity in the Atlantic in coming seasons, with a significant probability that more cities, primarily in the United States, will be effectively destroyed by direct hits from Category 5 hurricanes.

New Orleans remains at extreme jeopardy, along with such Gulf Coastal cities as Beaumont, Houston, and Corpus Christi, Texas. Low lying areas of New York City and the whole of central Long Island are at extreme risk of inundating storm surge in the event that a Category 4 or higher hurricane should strike this area.

The US Midwest is at jeopardy for extremely severe spring and fall weather due to the extraordinary temperature differential that now exists between lower and mid-level atmospheres. This situation exists in all areas where surface temperatures build, along with high humidity, during the warm months of the year.

The Gulf Stream has been found to be essentially breaking down. The great columns of water that keep it flowing have been reduced to just two, and they are weakening rapidly. The failure of this current will have catastrophic effects in Europe and North America, completely transforming the climate of these areas in ways that cannot now be predicted, but will probably involve a significant lengthening of winter and a dramatically curtailed growing season in this presently surplus food area.

Along with the impending change in the structure of the ocean will come a reduction in planetary air movement, with the effect that air mixing and the clearing of polluted areas will become less robust. All regions generating high levels of pollution are therefore at risk of becoming unlivable for extended periods during pollution emergencies. In early 2006, such a situation arose in Tehran, with the loss of much life, and this effect is likely to become commonplace worldwide after 2007 to 2009.

Additionally, unexpectedly aggressive melt off the polar ice cap, the Western Antarctic ice sheet and Greenland are flooding both arctic and Antarctic polar waters with fresh water, causing them to both heat and cool much more rapidly than normal, insuring that the whole system of planetary ocean currents will cease to function at some time in the relatively near future.

Meanwhile, there was little political and human-institutional response to the building catastrophe. In the US, the current political administration not only denied the existence of the problem, but proactively sought to silence scientists who drew attention to it.

While many nations adopted the Kyoto protocol, which is designed to compel the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions at an institutional level, nobody on the planet in a leadership position addressed the one area where CO² emissions can be reduced quickly, which is at the personal level.

As a result of this, it is now clear that climate change has passed beyond the point of no return. We will feel the full effects of current CO² levels over the next 10 years, which will include the addition of outgassed methane from melting arctic permafrost in Canada, Alaska and Siberia. Rapidly increasing ocean temperatures may also release methane trapped in hydrides on the sea floor.

During past global warming sequences, methane has generally appeared in the atmosphere suddenly toward the end of the event, causing a rapid and very aggressive spike in temperatures. It appears likely that this is happening again.

When air temperatures above the polar arctic move above 26 C. (80 F.) there is a danger of extreme storm activity starting in the high arctic and sweeping south, a type of weather pattern that is unfamiliar to meteorologists at this time because it only takes place during unusual warming events.

Evidence of the effect of this type of storm was provided by Byrd Polar Research Institute scientists who discovered in 2005 that glaciers that had persisted in the Peruvian Andes for 5,200 years had at their base plants that had been frozen in a matter of minutes. This means that the conditions that created these glaciers emerged over a few hours, then persisted for thousands of years.

Similarly, the Ice-Man, Otzi, found in the Alps in a frozen condition, was overtaken by snows in an Alpine meadow at approximately the same time that the Peruvian glaciers were forming. The snows in that meadow did not melt again until recently.

Whether the two events happened simultaneously during a planetary weather event of a completely unknown type, or were the result of different but similarly structured events that took place during the same general period is unknown.

What is known, though, is that sudden warming causes weather events that are at present unknown. 5,200 years ago, an aggressive warming event had been underway for approximately a thousand years, and came to a sudden end.

The lack of effective leadership in reducing CO² emissions was particularly tragic, because there are so many ways that individuals, properly inspired and efficiently led, can reduce emissions of this gas.

It is probably more important that governments worldwide seek to end as much carbon-producing burning as possible. Vast areas of the third world depend on wood burning for cooking, and the people in these areas need to be given efficient and effective solar heating devices, which can be constructed easily and cheaply, to relieve them of most of their need to burn wood.

Aggressive forestry management worldwide must include serious enforcement against intentional burning, and a ban on export of lumber from burned trees. 'Slash and burn' farming techniques popular across Latin America and much of Asia must be replaced with inexpensive equipment-based clearing systems that are both more efficient and less polluting.

Governments must also teach individuals simple methods of reducing personal CO² emissions, and offer incentives for doing so, or make conservation mandatory.

To reduce individual emissions dramatically, only a few minor lifestyle changes are needed:

If these steps were taken by just 20% of U.S., Japanese, Canadian and European inhabitants, world CO² emission levels would drop to a point that the human factor would be vastly reduced as a source of global warming, and the day when the inevitable climate shift occurs could be delayed for years, perhaps centuries.

Sudden climate change events are part of earth's current climate pattern, and have happened many times in the past three million years. Prior to this period, climate tended to be stable for very long periods of time. However, the rising of Central American 2.8 million years ago changed the flow of ocean currents, which, combined with variations in solar energy output and slight changes in earth's orbit, has led to a much less stable climate since then.

During this period, there have been numerous ice ages lasting around a hundred thousand years each, interrupted by interglacials lasting from ten to fifteen thousand years. All of human history has unfolded during the last third of the most recent interglacial.

This interglacial is now ending, and human activity has added so much CO² to the atmosphere that the change of climate that will now take place is going to be extremely violent, probably much more so than in the past. In addition, we may not experience the onset of a new ice age at all, but the 'locking' of the climate into a much hotter pattern until the excess CO² dissipates. This will not happen until human activity is reduced by negative natural events.

Millions of people have already suffered from the effects of sudden climate change. A great American city has been ruined. Billions more stand to lose their lives over the next twenty years. A combination of rational disaster planning worldwide and an aggressive effort to reduce CO² emissions as quickly as possible are now essential to minimize loss of life and disruption.

If these things are not done, the present planetary economy and the civilizations that it supports will cease to exist.

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